Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 10.399406 11.929605 13.575458 15.473518 17.598085 19.898866 22.574900
2025-11-16 8.081929 10.142689 12.530771 15.487066 19.031627 23.127231 28.198757
2025-11-23 6.793127 9.041577 11.776047 15.317339 19.749850 25.079820 31.935255
2025-11-30 5.922000 8.310870 11.344205 15.432029 20.743914 27.354439 36.136477
2025-12-07 5.382918 7.905433 11.228337 15.859022 22.067068 30.014784 40.856253
2025-12-14 4.720207 7.246488 10.695055 15.658013 22.511911 31.523851 44.124920
2025-12-21 4.023239 6.453915 9.890399 14.993554 22.245966 32.028845 46.033438
2025-12-28 3.748665 6.240450 9.868426 15.398209 23.444733 34.528154 50.700700
2026-01-04 3.473183 5.992882 9.766750 15.663827 24.439027 36.766463 55.079012
2026-01-11 3.136795 5.613691 9.431255 15.547674 24.854815 38.187260 58.345374
2026-01-18 2.833662 5.255584 9.093916 15.393912 25.187881 39.481121 61.456469
2026-01-25 2.599629 4.987516 8.872655 15.395227 25.739095 41.096639 65.074425
2026-02-01 2.406009 4.774565 8.730039 15.520239 26.500485 43.078097 69.349673
2026-02-08 2.197177 4.513950 8.487339 15.464098 26.969830 44.634751 73.049107
2026-02-15 1.996570 4.246096 8.207392 15.319376 27.275799 45.934994 76.384583
2026-02-22 1.857016 4.077621 8.084158 15.425110 27.983931 47.874770 80.758305
2026-03-01 1.778976 4.019403 8.149934 15.855238 29.241279 50.717888 86.626912
2026-03-08 1.617960 3.779969 7.867545 15.653098 29.419969 51.837355 89.807162
2026-03-15 1.413218 3.428668 7.348321 14.989226 28.767678 51.573318 90.752709
2026-03-22 1.359244 3.388240 7.414581 15.393630 29.982063 54.406775 96.786184
2026-03-29 1.292636 3.313571 7.407874 15.659234 30.959266 56.874923 102.294681
2026-04-05 1.189611 3.147258 7.206738 15.543091 31.244347 58.184148 105.924473
2026-04-12 1.091840 2.982027 6.994230 15.389375 31.448656 59.355461 109.351605